Malthus Wrong on Population, Food Theory
Reviewer James Srodes was right when he wrote that Thomas Robert Malthus “was roundly dismissed during the 20th century as kind of loony for his warnings that unchecked population growth would soon outstrip humanity’s ability to produce enough food,” a point he made in a review of The Real Price of Everything: Rediscovering the Six Classics of Economics, which appeared in the July/August 2008 issue of Washington Lawyer. The fact is Malthus was wrong about both parts of his equation—population and food.

The geometric population growth that worried Malthus never happened. On the contrary, in our own lifetime, most industrialized nations are experiencing a “birth dearth” as fertility rates have fallen well below the average of 2.1 live births needed to maintain the current population. Thus, Canada, Europe, and Japan all have fertility rates well below replacement levels. Presumably, other large nations will see similar dropoffs in fertility as industrialization continues.

Malthus was equally wrong about food—mankind’s ability to produce food has increased geometrically, even though population has not. In many parts of the world, unfortunately, economic and political obstacles prevent people from obtaining the food they need. However, the issue is not, as Malthus predicted, some inherent limit on our ability to produce that food.

—Michael W. Steinberg
Bethesda, Maryland